The Dangerous Comfort of Certainty

Hand squeezing balloon

What happened with NVIDIA’s stock this week just taught us all a powerful lesson about certainty:

  • World’s leading maker of GPUs that power AI 
  • Seemingly unbeatable market position 
  • Protected by regulatory barriers

Until…a Chinese competitor unveils AI models that are both faster AND cheaper, sending shockwaves through global markets. And then yet another competitor, Alibaba, releases a new model. 

This isn’t a lesson about NVIDIA – it’s about all of us.

Think of certainty like squeezing a balloon – the harder you grip one area, the more it expands in unexpected directions elsewhere.

In business, we obsess over high-probability scenarios. But what about those black swan events? The ones that seem unlikely but could completely reshape our reality?

The truth is: 

  • We’re entering an era where complete information will be impossible 
  • The veracity of data itself will be constantly in question
  • Disruption isn’t just likely – it’s inevitable and will be ongoing

True leadership isn’t about being certain. It’s about fostering a culture that adapts to uncertainty, even thrives in it, as fellow speaker Meridith Elliott Powell teaches us. 

Three questions for leaders:

  1. How are you preparing for scenarios you think “could never happen”?
  2. What would it take to make your team more adaptable than your competition?
  3. When was the last time you were proven completely wrong – and what did it teach you?